[UO Herald News] Magincia House Plot Lottery Ticket Sales Analysis

[Spaz Ferret]

Magincia House Plot Lottery Ticket Sales Analysis
   

Overview
During the Magincia House Plot Lottery event, Ultima Online ran a lottery to win ownership of a number of 15x15 house plots located on the newly-rebuilt Isle of Magincia. There are 22 of these plots per facet (Felucca and Trammel), and 27 shards. Siege Perilous, having no Trammel facet, only had only 22 raffled plots, while the remaining 26 shards auctioned 44 plots. The total number of plots raffled is 1,166.
Due to mistaken deletion of a related in-game object, there are no logs for plot SW-4 on the Trammel facet of the Atlantic shard. The numbers in this analysis therefore only include values for 1,165 lotteries. The numbers of tickets sold are in actuality slightly greater than those reported here. It is possible to estimate values of the missing data by extrapolation, but we make no attempt to do so here.
Each of the 22 plots per facet were raffled in one of two ways: One Ticket Per User Account (“limited”), and Unlimited Tickets Per Customer (“unlimited”). 12 of the plots were limited lotteries, while the other 10 were unlimited. Limited-lottery tickets cost the player 10,000gp, and the unlimited-lottery tickets cost 2,000gp each.
Here are some overall statistics for the lottery:

Total Ticket Sales

Total ticket sales for Limited Lottery plots were 139,482 (1,394,820,000gp).
Total ticket sales for Unlimited Lottery plots were 23,710,748 (47,421,496,000gp).
The total amount of gold spent on lottery tickets was 48,816,316,000gp.




Player Participation

9,655 user accounts bought tickets for the lottery
9,266 users bought tickets for Limited Lottery plots
7,329 users bought tickets for Unlimited Lottery plots
6,940 users bought tickets for both types of lotteries




Winner Distribution

833 unique user accounts won plots from the lottery
1 user won 10 plots
2 users won 7 plots each
8 users won 6 plots each
7 users won 5 plots each
17 users won 4 plots each
40 users won 3 plots each
112 users won 2 plots each
The remaining 646 users won a single plot




 
Details – Limited Lotteries
The complete report showing Limited Lottery Ticket Sales by Shard, Facet, and Plot can be downloaded in a pdf. We include summary lines by Facet and Shard, with grand totals.
 
Details – Unlimited Lotteries
Here we present a breakdown of the ticket sales for this lottery, summarized in several different ways. The column headers in these summaries are as follows:

Plot      Player   Total     Average            Median Std Dev Max      (Chance)           Winner (Chance)
Shard, Facet, and Plot – these indicate the location of the plot by server and facet, and include the plot number as used in-game for the lottery.
Player is the number of unique user accounts that purchased tickets in that particular lottery.
Total is the total number of tickets purchased for that lottery
Average shows the average (or mean) number of tickets purchased by each participant of that plot’s lottery.
Median shows the median value of tickets purchased; half the participants of that lottery purchased less than this number while the rest purchased more.
Std Dev shows Standard Deviation, which is the dispersion from the mean value amongst ticket purchasers. This number is the square root of the variance in ticket sales. A higher value here indicates a larger range in number of tickets purchased for that lottery.
Max is the number of tickets purchased by the largest ticket purchaser; the (Chance) column beside it shows the chances that user had of winning.
Winner indicates the number of tickets purchased by the plot’s winner, and the (Chance) column beside it shows the chance that user had of winning.
     

The complete report showing Unlimited lottery ticket purchase information, broken down by individual plot, grouped by shard and facet can be downloaded in a pdf.

     

http://www.uoherald.com/node/402
   

[Ultima]

I didn't buy 1 ticket! 

*Gold Hoarder*

[Endless Night]

So approx $24,500 worth of gold removed.  ~49,000,000,000gp at 50c a mill  - Thats actually quiet impressive.

Also from the stat's these are the most popular shards most - least

Atlantic
Asuka
Great Lakes
Hokuto
Sakura
Pacific.

[luv2luvlong]

If peeps spent 49 billion on these plots, how much gold do you think is in the game.
I'm betting at least another 10 trillion or so.

[Canuker]

I spent about 20 mil on 4 shards not to receive a single plot...I'm still pissed that some folks one piles....good for them though.

[Masscre]

I am thinking this gives us a rough estimate of how many accounts are still paying for UO.

[TrailMyx]

I wonder how many people used ENs script to successfully get a plot? I didn't even buy one ticket.

[Endless Night]

I am thinking this gives us a rough estimate of how many accounts are still paying for UO.

I think it gives us a rough estimate of how many active players their were at that moment in time  9,655 (alarmingly low).   Theirs probably many multiples of that that are paying for accounts but not actively logging in.  Their has to be otherwise they would have closed the doors long ago.

Still thats a shockingly low number of unique user accounts that participated. 

Each participating account only spent an average of 5mil, thats a drop in the ocean... when the average decent suite costs more than that.

[TrailMyx]

I dunno, I still have two "active" accounts, and I just watched the ship sail.  Too busy playing Rift, WoW, etc.  Duke is coming!!! Tell your friends!

[JustAnotherFace]

I have 6 active accounts, and scores of inactive accounts... I didn't buy a single ticket, I didn't fight the crowds for any of the "open" spots when they came available... yet still ended up with one of the plots on the water... traded a guy an old keep that I had used long ago as a plant house.  I never used the keep anymore anyway, and the only thing that I had stored in it was a crap load of dead plants.  I just rolled the dice and took the gamble that the plot would eventually be worth more than the keep, if not already.

JaF

[Canuker]

I wonder how many people used ENs script to successfully get a plot? I didn't even buy one ticket.

Used but with no success.

[NObama]

I know players with more gold than that.  I'm really worried about the accounts that participated.

[Ultima]

There still isn't alot of housing available on many shards. People may not be playing but it's not like there's an abundant space available to place Castles and Keeps. I wander around looking for a Castle/Keep spot from time to time and as much as people say this game is dead there appears to be accounts still active even though the players may be 'dormant'. Something is keeping these houses up.

Check out Balhae Luna...there are tons of empty plots (Foundations placed but no houses built). It's weird...

I don't think this lottery is a good measuring stick as to the number of subscriptions that are still active. This coming from a guy who didn't but 1 ticket on all 4 accounts.

[Endless Night]

I think its a measuring stick even if its flawed.. it means their is probably 50k-100k active accounts... or 5x-10x number of active players, I very much doubt its higher than that tho... its like a gym membership that you never use... but you keep out of guilt.

[Ultima]

I think its a measuring stick even if its flawed.. it means their is probably 50k-100k active accounts... or 5x-10x number of active players, I very much doubt its higher than that tho... its like a gym membership that you never use... but you keep out of guilt.

Quote of the week "UO is like a gym membership that you never use... but you keep out of guilt".

I think that's a fairly accurate statement!